2017 ZSABL Western Division Analysis

 

 

Memphis Sound

Starting Staff:

Five (B-Z’s) are the composition of the Sounds rotation. Julio Teheran 188 IP, Jake Odorizzi 188 IP, Kenta Maeda 176 IP, Jacob de Grom 148 IP and Joe Ross 105 IP are the names attached to the grades. David Price and Sean Manaea, both (C-Z’s), are on the active roster to provide an occasional start and perform mop up duties. In the minors, full of promise are Matt Harvey (D-Z), Alex Cobb and Jose De Leon, the latter two are both  (D-No-Z’s). Un-carded Tyler Beede will join them.

 

Bullpen:

Mark Melancon A&C*-Z is the closer. Supporting him are Wade Davis (A&C*-No-Z), Joe Blanton (A*-Z) and Alex Claudio (A*-Z). Hector Rondon (B*-Z) and A.J.Ramos (B*-No-Z) round out the pen. Any lapse in coverage (My calculations show a 85 inning deficit) will have to be picked up by the two (C-Z’s) starters, Price and Manaea.

 

Catchers:

Buster Posey C-9 1B-3 will once again be the man behind the plate although there was a 53 point drop off to .796 in his OPS. Backing him up is James McCann C-8 who also suffered a 53-point loss in his OPS of a year ago. Down on the farm is Jorge Alfaro C-6.

 

Infield:

They traded for Miguel Cabrera 1B-3 .956 OPS and with Jose Abreu 1B-3 .821 OPS these two will be inter-changeably employed at DH and first base according to skipper Kachnoskie’s whims. Robbie Cano 2B-8 .883 had a bounce back year and he will team up with Carlos Correa SS-8 .812 OPS to form the DP combo. Nolan Arenado 3B-5 .932 is as good as it gets at the hot corner. Marcus Semien SS-8 makes the club again as a reserve while newly drafted Hernan Perez 3B-3 2B-6 OF-1 SS-7 1B-3 provides the versatility. On the farm is Devon Travis 2B-7, Trey Mancini 1B-2, who showed his power potential in a brief audition with the Orioles last September and three un-carded hopefuls in Austin Riley, Dawel Lugo and Rowdy Tellez.

 

Outfield:

The outfield looks a little thin depth wise, Starling Marte OF-3 .818 OPS, Marcell Ozuna OF-2 .773 and Lorenzo Cain OF-3 .747 will be the starters. The only other player on the active roster who can be used in the pastures is the utility man Hernan Perez. This group doesn’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers. In the minors, at least for the time being, is Jorge Soler OF-2 .769 OPS, Scott Schebler OF-1 .762 OPS and Nomar Mazara OF-2 .739. Also in the minors is the Sound’s “Pride and Joy”, # 1 draft pick Hunter Renfroe OF-1 biding his time before he takes advantage of his 35 at bats and his 1.189 OPS. He occupies the same esteemed status that 2015  # 1 overall selection Jorge Soler had for Memphis even though it was ephemeral. Highly regarded un-carded Tyler O’Neill will be seated beside him.

 

Draft Analysis:                                               

Their first round selection was a bit of a surprise in Hunter Renfroe, only 35 at bats for this year but double 1’s, double 5’s and a “6” and with his potential it made for a nice pick. He is penciled in to start for the San Diego Padres this upcoming season. In the 2nd they added Alex Claudio, Sean Manaea arrived in the 3rd, Mancini in the 4th and un-carded players O’Neill and Tellez in the 5th & 6th. In the 7th, valuable utility man Hernan Perez was selected. Recently traded Jose E. De Leon, who went to Tampa Bay in exchange for Logan Forsythe was picked in the 8th. Then three un-carded prospects in a row, Austin Riley, Dawel Lugo and Tyler Beede were added. At this point confusion set in. The Sound front office frantically tried to reach the 40 man roster, they took Tim Adleman, Matt Boyd, Brandon Nimmo and Scott Schebler, with each selection they released the previous pick. After counting their cards numerous times and coming up with a different number each time they released their final pick, Scott Schebler. Counting the cards again they realized the errors of their ways and re-picked Schebler. Then after the draft they though they only had 39 players again and called into this Office to reclaim Adleman but another roster snafu in Rochester had allowed the Rockers to draft him. Finally it dawned on the Memphis skipper that they had un-carded Tyler Beede, who they apparently had completely forgotten about. Finally satisfied they concluded their draft. A hiring of a personal secretary was advised for next year’s draft.

 

Synopsis:

At first glance when you see the Sound’s rotation of five B-Z’s you automatically think they are playoff bound. Their 6-man pen is armed with enough quality to win most of their close contests. The surprising fact is that even with all those pitchers they still fall short of  (B) or better inning coverage for the season, close to 90 by quick calculation. Now they do have Price and Manaea, both C-Z’s, to cover that shortage. Maybe all those innings will be used in blowouts but it is something to consider. Line up wise they are the 4th best in the West according to the methodology applied by this analysis. The outfield production is lacking especially with Lorenzo Cain and only carrying Hernan Perez OF-1 as the extra outfielder limits their maneuverability. Even with these perceived shortcomings they should still make the post season by default based on their competition.

 

Norfolk Neptunes

Starting Staff:

The “Nep’s” very deep rotation will start the season with four (B-Z’s) in Justin Verlander 228 IP, Rick Porcello 223 IP, Johnny Cueto 220 IP and Tyler Anderson 114 IP. Their 5th starter is (C-Z) Taijuan Walker. Ready to step in when Anderson’s innings limit is reached or they want to replace the C-Z in Walker, they have Jameson Taillon B-Z 104 IP, Aaron Sanchez B-No-Z 192 IP and Blake Snell B-W 89 IP waiting in the wings down on the farm. Ty Blach (A&B-No-Z, 17 IP), Dylan Bundy (C-No-Z), Reynaldo Lopez (D-No-Z) and Jose Berrios (D-W) will also bide their time in the bushes.

 

Bullpen:

Dan Otero (A&C*-Z) is the closer with Aroldis Chapman (A&C*-No-Z) and Roberto Osuna (A*-Z) in support. One of Norfolk’s cardinal rules is to always have two (A*-Z’s) and with Otero and Osuna they fill that requirement. The pen is further strengthened with three (B*-Z’s) in Luke Gregorson, Hunter Strickland and Jose Alvarez. Felipe Rivero (C*-No-Z) is their only minor league option.

 

Catchers:

Perhaps the best receiving corp in the ZSABL can be found here in Jonathan Lucroy C-8 .855 OPS and the C-7 1.033 OPS monster card of rookie Gary Sanchez, 1-0-0-0-1, 201 at bats. They are probably better served using the latter strictly as a DH instead of taking the solid Lucroy out of the lineup. The only caveat with this scenario is if Lucroy gets injured or is replaced with a runner they will lose their DH for the remainder of the game since the only other catcher on the roster is Travis D’Arnaud C-8 and he begins the season in the minors.

 

Infield:

Manny Machado 3B-5 SS-8 .876 is the undisputed leader of this group. He will primarily play third base but he also qualifies at short. Rougned Odor 2B-7 and Francisco Lindor SS-9 form the DP tandem. Mark Reynolds 1B-4 will see most of the PT at first with C.J.Cron 1B-3 spelling him at times. Jake Lamb 3B-3 will do the DH chores but Sanchez will be inserted there sporadically. Joe Panik 2B-9 is the main reserve. On the farm are Brandon Crawford SS-9 and A.J.Reed 1B-2 along with two un-cards in Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario.

 

Outfield:

OF-2 .933 OPS Charles Blackmon who has exceeded Norfolk’s expectations is one starter with Ryan Braun OF-3 .903 OPS flanking him. Completing the outfield alignment is “Cargo” Gonzalez OF-3 .855 OPS. It is a very formidable collection of fly chasers even without the traded Giancarlo Stanton. The back ups are Andy Benintendi OF-1 and Jarrod Dyson OF-2, another of the ubiquitous reclamation projects that was so prevalent in this years draft. In the minors are hopefuls Manuel Margot OF-2 and Aaron Judge OF-1.

 

Draft Analysis:

They tabbed Dan Otero to be their closer in the first round and to fulfill their yearly mission of having two (A*-Z’s) in the pen. Lots of pre-draft speculation on the Neptune’s intent to grab P Alex Reyes early on was squashed when they passed on him in the 2nd and went for B-Z Tyler Anderson instead. They said they soured on Reyes right before the draft and with the announcement of his TJ surgery a few days later their due diligence proved prescient. They went to the cookie-jar in the 3rd with Dominic Smith, a tad early IMHO. In the 4th they filled a hole at first with Mark Reynolds. Young OF Manuel Margot was selected in the 5th and Jose Alvarez arrived in the 6th. They had no 7th but in the 8th they chose un-carded Amed Rosario, who looks like a good one and his remaining on the board longer than expected was a bonus. They took chances on Dylan Bundy in the 9th and Reynaldo Lopez in the 10th. They fortified their bench with Dyson in the 11th and with their final pick their San Francisco allegiance came through with the selection of Ty Blach, although he pitched brilliantly down the stretch for the real life Giants.

  

Synopsis:

A very strong lineup, 2nd only to Hartford but unlike the Hurricanes they have a talented and deep pitching corp both in the rotation and in the pen. There are no weaknesses in the “sea god’s” realm unless you consider the decision of who to take out, Lucroy or Lamb, when you want to insert Gary Sanchez into the lineup a problem. I doubt if there will many veiled threats to visit Chique’s Rock this season. They should capture the Western flag without any issues. The rest of the division will have to ponder how to attack the Neptunes in the play offs.

 

Seattle Scouts

Starting Staff:

Not a very impressive cast of characters. J.A.Happ and Steve Wright both (B-No-Z’s) headline the rotation. Rick Nolasco (C-Z) is in the # 3 slot, after that the drop off begins with Martin Perez and Dan Straily both (C’s-No-Z) although Perez threw a complete game shutout in his first start this season. In the minors there is little help, two more (C-No-Z’s) in Tom Koehler and Jason Hammel, (D-Z) Wei-Yin Chen and (D-No-Z) Doug Fister is all they have to offer.

 

Bullpen:

As usual the pen is the Scout’s pride and joy. What is unusual is that the plethora of relievers one associates with the Scouts, are all lacking the control letter (Z). Brad Brach (A&C*), Sam Dyson and Steve Ciskek, both (A*’s), will enter contests sans the (Z) making difficult situations more precarious. They also have two (B*’s No-Z) in Brad Hand and Hansel Robles who will still be valuable to at least eat up some innings. So out of the ten pitchers on the Scout’s active roster, only # 3 starter, Rick Nolasco has any control. The normal modus operandi of Seattle’s management involves stock piling the minors with an influx of arms and this year is no different. The farm system’s collection includes three B*’s in Mychal Givens, Bryan Shaw and Francisco Rodriguez and two C(B*’s) in Clayton Richard and Zach McAllister. The letter (Z) finally appears on three C*’s in Fernando Salas, Blaine Boyer and Mike Morin. It is quite the “Motley Crew”.

 

Catchers:

They went into the draft seeking catching help and they got a productive Cameron Rupp C-7 .750 OPS to pair with incumbent Nick Hundley C-6 .759 OPS. They added some depth for their minor league with Dioner Navarro C-7.

 

Infield:

Josh Donaldson 3B-5 .953 OPS will man the hot corner. V.Chris Carter 1B-2 will add some much needed pop at first base. Asdrubal Cabrera SS-8 .810 OPS is a steady influence at shortstop. Some sort of platoon system will be employed at the keystone bag with draftees, Adam Rosales 2B-7 SS-7 3B-3 1B-3 OF-1 and Whit Merrifield 2B-7 OF-2. The bench is made up of Mitch Moreland 1B-5, Josh Harrison 2B-9 and Alcides Escobar SS-8, another one of those reclamation projects. Down on the farm is Dee Gordon 2B-7 and Kendry Morales 1B-2. The DH will be Nelson R.Cruz OF-1 .915 OPS.

 

Outfield:

Curtis Granderson OF-2 .799 OPS and 1st round pick Adam Duvall OF-3 .795 OPS will occupy two of the outfield slots with Angel Pagan OF-2 .750 OPS and Gerardo Parra OF-3 1B-4 .670 vying for PT in the other spot. Utilizing Cruz with his OF-1 is perhaps an option because the only other player that can deploy to the pastures is the infielder Merrifield.

 

Draft Analysis:

With their # 1 pick they chose Adam Duvall OF-3, a nice addition to the Scout’s lineup. In the 2nd they grabbed B-No-Z starting pitcher Steve Wright. They continued to jack up their offense with V.Chris Carter in the 3rd and Cameron Rupp in the 4th. Rick Nolasco arrived in the 5th and at this point Seattle’s draft was churning on all cylinders as each selection improved the club tremendously. Some how the wheels started falling off in the 6th and 7th when they took two C-No-Z’s in Martin Perez and Dan Straily, not that those two do not have an upside but because there was still plenty of C-Z starting pitcher available and Seattle had holes in the rotation that needed filled. In the 8th and 9th a pair of B*-No-Z’s were tabbed in Brad Hand and Hansel Robles as it appeared the Scout front office was more concerned with innings rather than control. The 10th saw Navarro come on board as the third catcher. In the 11th they took a flier on Escobar who was cut loose by Brooklyn. In the 12th they went back to their strategy of employing high inning hurlers with no control in Tom Koehler. Merrifield was taken in the 13th and they are very high on him. The 14th gave them Bryan Shaw and Adam Rosales, with a nice power card and multi-position eligibility, came in the 15th. Their final selection was Clayton Richard a C(B*)-No-Z.

 

Synopsis:

They are still the oldest team in the West but as Seattle’s skipper likes to say, they have the most experience. It is going to be a long year with only one (Z) on their entire pitching staff. Like everyone else in the ZSABL they have a decent lineup and the Scouts can amp up that production with some timely taps of the Pabst can with the shaker. They will not come close to duplicating last year’s successful season. It looks like the cellar is imminent unless their fortuitous rolling can over come who ever comes in 6th place in the “holier than thou” division.

 

Pensacola Piranhas

Starting Staff:

The Ace is of course Clayton Kershaw (A&C-ZZ) but this year he is limited to just 140 IP. Bartolo Colon (B-Z) 192 IP is next. Following that pair is three (B-Z’s) with somewhat low inning totals. They are Steven Matz 132 IP, Anthony Desclafani 123 IP and Colby Lewis 116 IP. Zach Neal C-ZZ 70 IP will help out with some spot starts. In the minors is A-Z Jharel Cotton 29 IP, Luis Cessa (C-Z) and Dallas Kuechel (C-No-Z). These three will be needed when rosters expand to cover any inning lapses. Un-carded Francis Martes will join them.

 

Bullpen:

The closer will be Alex Colome with Seung-Hwan Oh (A*-Z) the set up man. Brad Ziegler (A*-No-Z) is next with Erasmo Ramirez C(B*-Z) 91 IP filling out the pen. In the bushes are Ian Krol B*-Z, Jared Hughes (B*-No-Z) and Joakim Soria (C*-No-Z). Like the starting staff these minor leaguers will be needed late in the season to cover some innings.

 

Catchers:

Matt Wieters C-8 .711 OPS is the starting receiver. The double “1”, double” 5” card of Tom J.Murphy C-6 will back him up. Their other Murphy from last year, J.R., was let go during the draft as the Piranha management wanted to spread out the ethnicity makeup of the team to be more diverse. It was determined that two players of Irish descent were one to many, although that rule did not apply to any of the Latin America countries. The current roster boasts of players of Italian, Irish, Korean, Japanese, Mexican and Polish descent. They also have native-born players from Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and Nicaragua.

Getting back to the catching corp, Kurt Suzuku C-9 and un-carded Francisco Mejia will be in the minors.

 

Infield:

Edwin Encarnacion 1B-3 .886 OPS is the designated hitter with Adrian Gonzalez 1B-5 .784 OPS at first base. SABRmetrics suggested that Luis Valbuena 3B-4 fill the DH role pushing Encarnacion to first base but Piranha management wanted the (5) at first base in Gonzalez. Ryon Healy 3B-3 .861 OPS did not appear in their first series, one would assume he will DH when he is in the lineup, moving Encarnacion to 1B, or they could elect to play his 3B-3 at third supplanting projected starter Yangervis Solarte 3B-4 2B-7 sending him to the bench. Ben Zobrist 2B-8 OF-2 will be the second baseman with Jonathan Villar SS-8 2B-7 3B-3, who came into his own last year with a .826 OPS, pairing with him for the DP tandem. Joining the aforementioned Valbuena on the bench is Brandon Drury 2B-7 3B-3 OF-1 and all-around super utility guy Marwin Gonzalez 1B-4 2B-7 3B-4 SS-9 OF-2. In the minors with his double ones is Jedd Gyorko 2B-7 1B-3 3B-3 SS-7 along with the aging David Wright 3B-3 .788, who appears to be nearing the end and Josh Bell 1B-2 OF-1.

 

Outfield:

Khris Davis OF-2 .831 and Randall Grichuk OF-3 .769, despite his 100-point drop in OPS from a year ago, will be two of the starters. Odubel Herrera OF-3 .781 OPS is the other. Ender Inciarte OF-3 is the only reserve on the active roster. They do have some outfield depth in the minors in Michael A.Taylor OF-3 and Lancaster,Pennsylvania’s Travis Jankowski OF-2. Joining them is un-carded Eloy Jimenez.

 

Draft Analysis:

They went for pitching in the first three rounds, Seung-hwan Oh (A*-Z), Alex Colome (A&C*-Z) and Colby Lewis (B-Z) arrived in that order. Ryon Healy was still available in the 4th round so he was a pleasant surprise for the Piranha’s. Jharel Cotton was another “gift” in the 5th. They went un-carded in the 6th with Cleveland catcher Francisco Mejia and it looks like he might be a good one. An always valuable B*-Z, Ian Krol was selected in the 7th. Jedd Gyorko in the 8th and un-carded Eloy Jimenez was grabbed in the 9th. A pair of useful C-Z pitchers was chosen in the next two rounds in Cessa and Neal, the latter having the ZZ. Their final selection was another un-card in Francis Martes of the Houston Astros.

 

Synopsis:

Other than Encarnacion and perhaps Khris Davis they really lack the “big-bopper” in the middle of the line up to drive in runs, Healy will help when he plays but he is limited in at bats. That is why they rank next to last in offense in the West. They should have enough pitching to get through the season but just barely. In most of the simulations I ran they made the playoffs over 50% of the time. So there is something about this team that gives them a “sleeper” quality. They did open the season with a 6-0 sweep over San Diego so maybe it is not just an aberration. In a wide open race for the last playoff spot in the West, maybe even the last two spots we will reserve an opinion of where they will finish until the Division summary at the end of this analysis.

 

Union Station Mystic Cowboys

Starting Staff:

Garrett Richards A-No-Z 35 IP will open the season on the active roster and throw his inning limit before being sent down. Kendall Graveman (C-Z) is the betting odds favorite to replace him. Until that happens the rest of the rotation will consist of  John Lackey (B-Z), Tanner Roark (B-No-Z) and two (C-Z’s) in Marcus Stroman and Jerad Eickhoff. In addition to Graveman, Joe Musgrove (C-Z), un-carded hurlers Anderson Espinoza and Josh Hader will also be down on the farm. The former is making a return appearance in the Cowboy’s system, they drafted him a year ago but were forced to come back to the draft and release him because of some roster SNAFU.

 

Bullpen:

Either Kelvin Herrera or Jeremy Jeffress, both (A*-Z’s), will slide into the closer role; there is no early season indications on who that will be as both have earned saves so far.

Jeurys Familia and Cody Allen, both (A*’s No-Z) will be the set up men. Liam Hendriks (B*-Z) fills out the pen. In the bushes are Blake Treinen (A*-No-Z) and Mike Lorenzen (B*-Z).

 

Catchers:

Welington Castillo C-8 .745 OPS will start but they gave up a lottery pick to acquire Salvador Perez C-9 to eventually push him for the job. In the minors is Boston Red Sox receiver Blake Swihart OF-1 C-7 .720 OPS. He was tried in the outfield last year and was injured and missed the rest of the season. The BoSox said that experiment is over but in his return to the back stopping duties he developed a case of the “yips” and was unable to toss the ball back to the pitcher. He thinks he has overcome that problem just recently. Also in the minors is un-carded Zack Collins.

 

Infield:

Hanley Ramirez 1B-2 will play first base despite his fielding shortcomings as well as do the DH honors on occasion. Todd Frazier 3B-4 has apparently held off the challenge of recently acquired Nick Castellanos 3B-3 by blasting the ball in this early part of the year. The latter will be a part-time DH. Jonathan Schoop 2B-7 has over taken Neil Walker 2B-7 for the keystone job. Troy Tulowitzki SS-9 will be his DP partner. Javier Baez 2B-8 3B-5 SS-9 1B-4 OF-2 will bounce all over the diamond. Eric Hosmer 1B-5 will be relegated to defensive duties and pinch-hit assignments. On the farm is Tim Anderson SS-8, Bret Lawrie 2B-7 and Joey Gallo 3B-3. Un-carded second baseman Ian Happ will join them.

 

Outfield:

Bryce Harper OF-2 .814 OPS had a down year but will still bat leadoff for USMC. Steve Piscotty OF-2 .800 OPS and Gregory Polanco OF-2 .786 complete the unit. Ian Desmond OF-2 .782 and Byron Buxton OF-3 are the reserves. Although in recent action the latter has seen a lot more PT at the expense of the former. The minor league fly chasers are led by Josh Reddick OF-3, Max Kepler OF-2 and un-carded Victor Robles.

 

Draft Analysis:

The excitement of the draft usually proves too much for Manager Smith but this year was an exception, as he had no roster problems. They had three first round picks one day before the draft. A scant one hour before the Moratorium on trades went into effect they shipped two of them off to Rochester for Salvador Perez and Nick Castellanos. On draft day they sent their last # 1 to Brooklyn for Jonathan Schoop. They had all of their own picks starting in the 2nd round and they kicked off the selection process by taking the highly coveted Max Kepler. In the 3rd they grabbed probably the highest rated C-Z in Kendall Graveman. The 4th gave them Blake Treinen and in the 5th they chose Joe Musgrove. Un-carded Victor Robles was acquired in the 6th and they added Mike Lorenzen in the 7th. Tim Anderson still on the board in the 8th round then became a Cowboy. Their last four picks were all un-cards in Ian Happ, Anderson Espinoza, Zack Collins and Josh Hader.

 

Synopsis:

By ZSABL methodology they have the worst lineup in the West. Last year this analysis said the same thing and the Cowboys finished a surprising third in the West. Where do they finish this year? After Norfolk, who is the top dog, Memphis is in the next rung but only slightly ahead of the rest of the pack. USMC has to be included in this chase along with the rest of the division. A strong bullpen that will have to be relied on heavily because 60% of the time they have to start a C-Z and some pop spread evenly throughout their lineup will keep them in contention for that last post season berth.

 

Hartford Hurricanes

Starting Staff:

They had to rebuild almost an entire starting pitching rotation via the trade route and the draft with the only holdover being Jeff Samardzija (C-Z) 203 IP. They got it done albeit with a lot of innings deficiencies. Miguel Gonzalez (B-Z) returns to the Hurricanes with his 135 IP at the top of the list, Junior Guerra B-No Z 122 IP is the # 2, Josh Tomlin C-ZZ 174 IP, Zach Davies C-Z 163 IP along with the previously mentioned Samardzija complete the rotation. In the minors are R.A.Dickey (C-No Z) who will be forced to take the hill for about 60 innings at some point during the season. King Felix Hernandez, who they paid a King’s Ransom for last season when he was a B-No-Z and only got a C-No-Z out of him in his second year in Hartford will join him. Also down in the bushes are Tyler Glasnow C-W who hopefully breaks through this season and Robbie Ray, D-No-Z, a strikeout machine who routinely got lit up the third time around in the order.

 

Bullpen:

They had to use the same method of trades and draft picks to rebuild the bullpen too. Matt Bush (A*-Z) 62 IP is the closer supported by Sergio Romo (A*-Z) 31 IP, George Kontos A*-No-Z is next with a left/right tandem of B*-Z’s in Joe Biagini and Mike G.Dunn. Dellin Betances rounds out the bullpen corp with his B*-No-Z and he will be used exclusively in mop up situations. In the minors is Kevin Siegrist B*-No-Z.

 

Catchers:

They traded for Robinson Chirinos C-8 .797 but he only has 147 at bats so the plan is to bat him twice a game, pinch hit for him and then replace him with Chris Herrmann C-7 .845 OPS who also is limited with just 138 at bats. Once Chirinos depletes his limits the “Canes” will reach down to the farm and recall Tyler Flowers C-7 .777 OPS and install him as the every day back stopper. Biding his time in the bushes is Brian McCann C-7 .748 OPS.

 

Infield:

Daniel Murphy 1B-3 2B-6 .985 OPS will be the first baseman, Brian Dozier 2B-9 .886 and Eduardo Nunez SS-8 3B-4 .757 form the double play combination. They traded for Justin Turner 3B-3 .832 and will install him at third base. David “Big Papi” Ortiz 1B-2 1.021 OPS, in his final season, will be the DH. For infield depth they have Jose Peraza, who qualifies at SS-8 2B-7 OF-2 .763 OPS, Derek Dietrich 2B-4 1B-3 2B-7 .799 OPS and Dansby Swanson SS-7 .803 OPS. Down on the farm are Lucas Duda 1B-3, Trevor Plouffe 3B-4 1B-3, Orlando Arcia SS-8 and the much anticipated arrival of un-carded Ozzie Albies.

 

Outfield:

Trea Turner OF-2 2B-8 .937 will start but with only 307 at bats he will have to be monitored. Jose A.Bautista OF-2 .818 OPS still holds down a spot in the Hurricane outfield with his six 14’s despite the 22-8. Jay Bruce OF-2 .815 OPS and double ones is the other starter. Mike Saunders OF-2 .816 will see plenty of action subbing for Turner and in some cases for Bautista. Peraza listed with the infielders qualifies in the outfield and no doubt he will spend more time in the pastures than the crowded Hartford infield. In the minors are Matt Kemp OF-1, who they are banking on a resurgence this year in Atlanta, Eddie Rosario OF-2 who they traded earlier in the off season and then traded back for him, power hitting Peter O’Brien OF-1 who probably is getting his last shot at a career in Kansas City this year and un-carded Lewis Brinson who may get a chance to start in Milwaukee.

 

Draft Analysis:

They had no first round pick and had to take the A*-Z reliever with the most innings in the 2nd and there they selected Matt Bush. In the 3rd round, as some of the Western Division managers always said, “Sometimes the draft comes to you” and in this case it did as Miguel Gonzalez B-Z 135 IP was still on the board and they welcomed him to the only team he ever pitched for in the ZSABL. In the 4th round there was yet another B starter left standing, this time without a Z but the “Cane’s” jumped on Junior Guerra with his 122 IP. In the 5th they completed their rotation with the acquisition of C-Z Zach Davies, the one C-Z they coveted the most. In the 6th they added Joe Biagini B*-Z and in the 7th they finally got off the pitcher bandwagon and with two picks in this round they selected Derek Dietrich, their 2nd choice for a utility man since Sean Rodriguez was taken in the 4th by San Diego and Mike Saunders. In the 8th they were pleasantly surprised Chris Herrmann was still around so he came on board. In the 9th they chose a lefty B*-Z in Mike G.Dunn and with their final selection searching for an un-card they discovered Orlando Arcia was the only player card still on their “want list” so they grabbed him despite the glut of shortstops in Hartford and headed downstairs from the draft. They had to pass the USMC skipper on the way and he immediately offered un-carded Ian Happ for Arcia, which was politely declined.

 

Synopsis: 

With at least one wide-open playoff slot available in the West, the Hurricanes with the best lineup in the entire ZSABL has to think they have a shot. They had to rebuild almost their entire pitching staff in the draft costing them chances at more offensive pieces and potential future stars. They still have the worst starting pitching in the division except for Seattle. If the age-old debate of whether it is better to have a C-Z as opposed to a B-No-Z is argued in Hartford’s favor then they may be slightly better than San Diego’s staff. Either way innings may be a problem with the many loaded lineups in the league; Grade C pitchers are not going to last long in games and that will tax a bullpen.

It would be disingenuous of me to say Hartford is not a playoff team. Of course you have to roll for the batter’s cards and that has not been a forte of Hartford over the years.

 

San Diego 76er’s

Starting Staff:

At the top of the rotation is B-Z 228 IP Max Scherzer. Cole Hamels 201 IP, Ervin Santana 181 IP and Drew Pomeranz 171 IP are all (B-No-Z’s). The 5th starter is Mike Fiers C-Z 169 IP. On the farm are Adam Conley and Vincent Velasquez, both (C-No-Z’s). Joining them are a pair of (D-Z’s) in Aaron Nola and Adam Wainwright, can you say reclamation project again? (D-No-Z) Chris Friedrich will also wait for the call.

 

Bullpen:

The closer will be Adam Ottavino A&C*-Z 27 IP. A duo of B(A*)’s No-Z will try to help him out in Dave Phelps and Brian Flynn since Ottavino only has 27 IP. If there are base runners and they need some control pitchers they will turn to B*-Z’s Kyle Ryan and Koji Uehara. Pedro Strop B*-No-Z will offer some slop innings. In the minors is Nick Vincent B*-Z

 

Catchers:

C-7 .826 Evan Gattis is the starter. Tony Wolters C-6 .723 backs him up. In the minors is Stephen Vogt C-7 and un-carded Andrew Knapp .

 

Infield:

2B-8 .928 OPS Jose Altuve starts at the keystone bag. Joey Votto 1B-3 .985 OPS, will do the DH honors with his defense down to a (3). In his stead at 1B will be Chris Davis 1B-5 .792. Matt Carpenter 3B-3 2B-7 1B-4 will have to start at third base since Mike Moustakas 3B-5 .801 only has 104 at bats. Did Gregorius SS-8 .751 will be the

Shortstop. The reserve is J.J.Hardy SS-9 .716. On the minor league roster is Starlin Castro 2B-7 SS-7 and Luis Sardinas SS-8 2B-7 1B-3 3B-3 OF-1

  

Outfield:

Sean Rodriguez 1B-4 OF-2 2B-7 3B-4 SS-7 .859 OPS 300 at bats will see most of his action in the outfield, he unfortunately is expected to miss the season due to a shoulder injury suffered in a car accident. Hunter Pence OF-2 .808 and Melky Cabrera OF-2 .800 will hold down the other two spots. Long time 76er Nick Markakis OF-3 .744 will caddy for Rodriguez, the other extra outfielder is Carlos Gomez OF-3 .682. Down on the farm are Shin-Soo Choo OF-2, Alex Gordon OF-3, and Leonys Martin OF-3. Un-carded Mickey Moniak and Nick Williams will join them.

 

Draft Analysis:

They did not pick until the 3rd where they selected Dave Phelps. In the 4th they grabbed Sean Rodriguez, learning a few days later that he was probably done for the year with a shoulder injury. In the 5th they added Melky Cabrera. The 6th, 7th and 8th saw them address their bullpen with Brian Flynn, Kyle Ryan and Adam Ottavino. In the 9th when Maine jettisoned Starlin Castro the 76er’s were right there to snatch him up, the umpteenth reclamation project of the draft. Adam Conley was selected in the 10th and he looked impressive at times for Florida last year. In the 11th they took a gamble that they could right the ship of Adam Wainwright’s career (Reclamation Project). The 12th round got them utility man Luis Sardinas. In the 13th they took Chris Friedrich. They went un-carded in the 14th with another Phillie prospect in Mickey Moniak.

 

Synopsis:

In a wide-open division, after the Norfolk Neptunes, and probably Memphis, the 76er’s are a marginal threat for the post season. The rotation pales in comparison to the top three staffs in the West and their lineup is at best, third in the “holier than thou”. Only their #1 and # 5 starters in the rotation have a (Z). Ottavino, their closer, only has 27 innings to work with.

That is enough with the negatives. 4/5 of their rotation are graded B, but only one with a (Z). It is hard to find anything else positive, other than they should score a lot like everyone else in the ZSABL, with the 2017 edition of the 76er’s.

The 76er’s won championships in 1979 and 1980 and lost in the finals in 1983 they then went a long time before returning to relevance in the league and whispers that the game had passed him by were frequently heard. Back to back titles in 1998 and 1999 and another in 2001 put those rumors to rest. A dismal 2016 season and a lack luster draft with very slim chances of success in 2017, the whispers have been re-appearing.

 

 

Division Wrap-Up

Norfolk has the second best lineup in the ZSABL. Their pitching rotation is also the best in the West. Their pen is either the first or second best in the “holier than thou”. All of these factors make the Neptunes the class of the division.

 

Memphis on paper looks like a lock for the playoffs, 2nd only to Norfolk. There is some vulnerability, not so much for making the post season but for holding on to the runner up spot. They are a tad light in innings and their C-Z’s have to provide some quality. The outfield production is also suspect and versatility there is non-existent with only H.Perez OF-1 available. Those B-Z starters however are a force and with the lack of any other real powerhouse teams to challenge them, they should hold on.

 

Hartford rarely makes an impact in this analysis but with that lineup they have to be considered. Pitching will determine how successful their season will be. The bullpen is adequate enough but how long the starters go is the big concern.

 

Pensacola, as mentioned earlier is the real “sleeper” for the 2017 season. They lack the offensive punch to put games away. The pitching is good enough to get through the year with some judicious use but just barely. Scoring, in an offensive oriented era, will pose their biggest dilemma.

 

Union Station like Hartford has to throw a bunch of C-Z’s but they do have a bullpen to bail them out. Plating runs is the key. By the league’s methodology they have the worst lineup in the league an despite their early success they cannot count on constantly rolling for Todd Frazier.

 

San Diego is a hard team to decipher; they are going to score a bunch but will they be able to hold on to leads with a very shaky pen. The lack of “Z’s” in the rotation will also hurt. In the past they have proved to be a master of bringing in the correct reliever at the appropriate time, sometimes just one batter at a time. They will have to be at the top of their game to make it work this year.

 

Seattle has just one “Z” on their entire major league staff and he is a Grade C. We all know how opportunistic the Scouts dice rolls are. They will need a lot of 3-run homeruns to overcome the shakiness of their pitching corp.

 

The final prediction:

1-Norfolk

2-Memphis

3-Hartford

4-Pensacola

5-Union Station

6-San Diego

7-Seattle

 

 

Disclaimer:

This journalistic endeavor is just an opinion. Please, if you disagree with it, post your own predictions. I do take a lot of time analyzing the rosters etc. If you must comment, make it to the entire league, sort of like a Letter to the Editor. In the past I have been wrong and sometimes right on the money just like the Weathermen.